The cost estimate to complete the subway to UBC is now around $10 billion and the cost fro the subway, soon to be announced, will be around $4 billion, yet at best they system will carry around 4,000 to 5,000 pphpd in the peak hour. This is why the the Millennium Line is being signaled for a maximum capacity of 7,500 pphps.
From Thales June 2022 news release regarding the $1.47 billion re-signalling contract for the Expo and millennium Lines.
"When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively."
And not to mention the southern access roads to UBC, such as West 49th Ave and Southwest Marine Drive, which are already clogged from 7:45am and 4pm every workday. The only way density works at UBC is if it becomes a sustainable community that *stays mostly at UBC* - which doesn’t currently happen due to the cost of rental housing on campus.
".....................the bills mandating higher density near transit..........."; this is a myth, that you need density for transit, especially in the metro Vancouver area.
Density has little to do with transit use, except if the transit is so bad that the only way to increase ridership is to massively densify around a transit route, especially at stations.
What has attracted people to transit is user friendliness or the ease of using good transit, from where you live to where you want to go, without transfer or with one transfer with quick connections.
The density myth has been repeated so often locally, that the public and politcans have come to believe it. The sad fact is, transit ridership in the Vancouver metro area has only increased with the increase of population and there is zero evidence that transit, especially our proprietary light metro system has actually created any sort of modal shift from car to light-metro.
What the politcans do not tell the taxpayers is that our SkyTrain light-metro system has been studied to death and this pertinent fact, that the light metro system, where well over 80% of its customers first take a bus, has not created a modal shift, is the main reason no other city has copied Vancouver and its exclusive use of light metro.
The Broadway subway is testament to the power of the SkyTrain/density myth and urban planning.
Funding for the now $4 billion, 5.7 km Broadway subway which this revision of cost will be announced after the provincial election.
The North American Standard for building a subway is a transit route with traffic flows in excess of 15,000 persons per hour per direction (pphpd), yet peak traffic flows on the 99B Line, which will be replaced by the Broadway subway to Arbutus, is about 2,000 pphpd, based on 3 minute peak hour headway's.
Before Bombardier's rail division was sold to Alstom, Bombardier publicly stated on its website "that it doesn’t recommend the Skytrain technology for peak period passenger levels below 8000 passengers/hour/direction". According to Thales news release, regarding winning the $1.47 billion resignalling of the Expo and Millennium Lines; "When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line (Broadway Subway) will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.
In 1940's and early 1950's, the Toronto Transit Commission were operating coupled sets of PCC trams on select routes, offering a maximum peak hour capacity over 12,000 pphpd, yet the Millennium Line will be limited to a maximum capacity of only 7,500 pphpd!
To complete the subway to UBC, with any chance of reasonable ridership, massive densification must take place along Broadway, so much densification that the surrounding roads will become permanently congested, with gridlock being common place, while at the same time politcans will crow about the high ridership on SkyTrain, which over time the public will come to realize that those supporting SkyTrain and a subway, were selling "Snake Oil" to city rubes.
Thanks for your comment and sorry for the delay. I just got back yesterday from a month travelling in Australia, went dark during that period as I did not want to advertise my absence.
Interestingly, our last stop was Sydney, a city larger than the entire province of BC. Their light transit is surface rail, similar to Calgary's, is cheap ($1 for our rides) and efficient - a train every 5 minutes on the weekend when commuters are not a factor.
I agree with your comments about SkyTrain's many shortcomings, also noting two observations: in Brisbane, with more folks than greater Vancouver, there is horrible density but not necessarily near transit, BUT they are busy building a subway system with all the disruptions the Broadway Plan is producing - I will be blogging about that over the next while.; in Sydney they are mostly disrupting by adding to their light rail system - much less business disruption and little relationship between transity stops and density.
Today, the Sydney metro is costing around AUD $18.5 billion (around CAD $18 billion) for 52 km of heavy rail metro or CAD $346 million/km.
Very expensive as only 74,000 customers use the system per day (wiki).
Fro what I have read and have been told, that the Sydney metro, like Vancouver, was built mainly for politcal prestige.
A modern tram can easily carry 74,000 pphpd and light rail, easily three times this number for about one third the cost. Toronto's King Street (504) streetcar carries around 55,000 customers a day and in Europe, classic tram systems carry up to 3 times as many customers.
Like Vancouver, there is a anti-tram bias, except for Melbourne, where the tram system (largest in the eastern hemisphere). Melbourne's route 96 also carries over 55,000 customers daily, followed by the route 109 over 50,000 customers daily and route 86, with over 42,000 customers daily.
Three modern tram or streetcar routes, costing a fraction to build (costs can be as low as CAD $35 million/km) and operate are carrying almost 150,000 customers a day.
There is a good reason why subways are built and that is when peak hour ridership exceeds 15,000 pphpd in North American and over 20,000 pphpd in Europe. Unfortunately in Sydney, as well as Vancouver, subways are built strictly for politcal prestige and not for economic pubic transport.
I agree about UBC and sustainability and worry as UBCx soil testing has now moved to Alma between Broadway and 10th. Thanks for reading.
The cost estimate to complete the subway to UBC is now around $10 billion and the cost fro the subway, soon to be announced, will be around $4 billion, yet at best they system will carry around 4,000 to 5,000 pphpd in the peak hour. This is why the the Millennium Line is being signaled for a maximum capacity of 7,500 pphps.
From Thales June 2022 news release regarding the $1.47 billion re-signalling contract for the Expo and millennium Lines.
"When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively."
And not to mention the southern access roads to UBC, such as West 49th Ave and Southwest Marine Drive, which are already clogged from 7:45am and 4pm every workday. The only way density works at UBC is if it becomes a sustainable community that *stays mostly at UBC* - which doesn’t currently happen due to the cost of rental housing on campus.
Thanks for writing, Brian!
".....................the bills mandating higher density near transit..........."; this is a myth, that you need density for transit, especially in the metro Vancouver area.
Density has little to do with transit use, except if the transit is so bad that the only way to increase ridership is to massively densify around a transit route, especially at stations.
What has attracted people to transit is user friendliness or the ease of using good transit, from where you live to where you want to go, without transfer or with one transfer with quick connections.
The density myth has been repeated so often locally, that the public and politcans have come to believe it. The sad fact is, transit ridership in the Vancouver metro area has only increased with the increase of population and there is zero evidence that transit, especially our proprietary light metro system has actually created any sort of modal shift from car to light-metro.
What the politcans do not tell the taxpayers is that our SkyTrain light-metro system has been studied to death and this pertinent fact, that the light metro system, where well over 80% of its customers first take a bus, has not created a modal shift, is the main reason no other city has copied Vancouver and its exclusive use of light metro.
The Broadway subway is testament to the power of the SkyTrain/density myth and urban planning.
Funding for the now $4 billion, 5.7 km Broadway subway which this revision of cost will be announced after the provincial election.
The North American Standard for building a subway is a transit route with traffic flows in excess of 15,000 persons per hour per direction (pphpd), yet peak traffic flows on the 99B Line, which will be replaced by the Broadway subway to Arbutus, is about 2,000 pphpd, based on 3 minute peak hour headway's.
Before Bombardier's rail division was sold to Alstom, Bombardier publicly stated on its website "that it doesn’t recommend the Skytrain technology for peak period passenger levels below 8000 passengers/hour/direction". According to Thales news release, regarding winning the $1.47 billion resignalling of the Expo and Millennium Lines; "When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line (Broadway Subway) will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively.
In 1940's and early 1950's, the Toronto Transit Commission were operating coupled sets of PCC trams on select routes, offering a maximum peak hour capacity over 12,000 pphpd, yet the Millennium Line will be limited to a maximum capacity of only 7,500 pphpd!
To complete the subway to UBC, with any chance of reasonable ridership, massive densification must take place along Broadway, so much densification that the surrounding roads will become permanently congested, with gridlock being common place, while at the same time politcans will crow about the high ridership on SkyTrain, which over time the public will come to realize that those supporting SkyTrain and a subway, were selling "Snake Oil" to city rubes.
Thanks for your comment and sorry for the delay. I just got back yesterday from a month travelling in Australia, went dark during that period as I did not want to advertise my absence.
Interestingly, our last stop was Sydney, a city larger than the entire province of BC. Their light transit is surface rail, similar to Calgary's, is cheap ($1 for our rides) and efficient - a train every 5 minutes on the weekend when commuters are not a factor.
I agree with your comments about SkyTrain's many shortcomings, also noting two observations: in Brisbane, with more folks than greater Vancouver, there is horrible density but not necessarily near transit, BUT they are busy building a subway system with all the disruptions the Broadway Plan is producing - I will be blogging about that over the next while.; in Sydney they are mostly disrupting by adding to their light rail system - much less business disruption and little relationship between transity stops and density.
Thanks for reading and thoughtfully commenting.
Today, the Sydney metro is costing around AUD $18.5 billion (around CAD $18 billion) for 52 km of heavy rail metro or CAD $346 million/km.
Very expensive as only 74,000 customers use the system per day (wiki).
Fro what I have read and have been told, that the Sydney metro, like Vancouver, was built mainly for politcal prestige.
A modern tram can easily carry 74,000 pphpd and light rail, easily three times this number for about one third the cost. Toronto's King Street (504) streetcar carries around 55,000 customers a day and in Europe, classic tram systems carry up to 3 times as many customers.
Like Vancouver, there is a anti-tram bias, except for Melbourne, where the tram system (largest in the eastern hemisphere). Melbourne's route 96 also carries over 55,000 customers daily, followed by the route 109 over 50,000 customers daily and route 86, with over 42,000 customers daily.
Three modern tram or streetcar routes, costing a fraction to build (costs can be as low as CAD $35 million/km) and operate are carrying almost 150,000 customers a day.
There is a good reason why subways are built and that is when peak hour ridership exceeds 15,000 pphpd in North American and over 20,000 pphpd in Europe. Unfortunately in Sydney, as well as Vancouver, subways are built strictly for politcal prestige and not for economic pubic transport.