City Conversation # 39: Today City Council voted for the proposed alignment of the UBC SkyTrain through the Jericho Lands—my alternative title, "The End of the Beginning," was not to be.
Similar to Margeax, I am wondering when development will start taking over
Point Grey if an election or financial crash do not intervene. I am already going to lose part of my view to the MIRRHP tower at Alma and Broadway. Even if TEAM wins the election, will that have any effect on the Jericho lands given that that is a First Nations development?
The Jericho Lands are within the city of Vancouver so are governed by its zoning and other bylaws. The ownership of JL is a bit murky-the relationship between Canada Lands Corp and MST seems rather secret, so it may be the feds could overrule the city but that’s kind of a “nuclear option,” especially as JL is in Joyce Murray’s riding. Interesting how quiet she’s been so far
Speculation problem? Tax it at $332/sf—more revenues for City Hall!
Like the 'empty homes tax' these moves by government are nothing more than a money grab. The punitive taxes will not deter off-shore capital from landing on these choice sites. They will be written off as 'the price of doing business' by folks overseas used to paying off government bribes.
So, any government action resulting in more government revenues has to be exposed for what it is—lying to the citizens.
The 'mix' of tenures is also laughable:
4% BELOW MARKET RENTAL
6% MARKET RENTAL
90% MARKET FOR SALE
We really are 'in through the looking glass' here. Once Upon A Time, the following mix was considered as appropriate in Vancouver (by TEAM 1.0 in False Creek South):
33% NON-Market
33% TARGETED TO MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
33% Market
Look at those numbers again and wonder out loud who is driving the train, and where that train is headed. 96% of Vancouverites are being shut out of the housing market by their very own government!
It is all coming to a head at the next election.
The last election saw only two Councillors re-elected. The Mayor and 8 other Councillors shown the door. THAT made it a change election.
Or did it?
Is there ANY difference between this Council and the one they replaced in almost 1 for 1 manner? No. Forecasts are that housing prices will grow from 7-times over affordability to 8-times over affordability by election time.
So, we face another 'change election'. Citizens must turn out and vote the bums out again.
With a new majority on Council, these 2050 plans can be exposed for what they really are...
Selling our city by the pound to the highest bidder.
Let's throw the bums out, and take a majority on Council! Then, let's give Vancouver back to the people again.
Thanks for sharing. I believe that what will be done will be whatever will make the most money in property taxes although, the increase in revenue will be eroded by massive costs to updates in infrastructure. I don’t live in Vancouver anymore but I did for most of my life and am a 3rd generation Kits kid! I’d like to know if anything further can be done to stop this before the election. It sickens me!
You can donate to TEAM, the party with the only hope of turning the city around. And you can urge yourself Vancouver friends to donate and join TEAM. Thanks for reading
Hi Brian thanks for speaking at this meeting as usual well thought out and filled with facts that should get any councillors attention. The fee they want to impose will simply crush any hope of smaller scale buildings, developers building towers can absorb that cost mid rise construction can not.
I have a question for you that is off topic but as someone who is actually taken time to review the cities plans and impacts and voice an opinion whenever possible ( the city doesn’t allow for many possibilities) I like to know your opinion.
When will all these projects start and when will they be completed? I know south false creek can not fully proceed until the land lease is up in 15 years but I have no idea about the other projects.
The reason I am asking is I might want to sell before my retirement in 15 or 20 years. At that point people will realize the city basically built the projects for anyone below 15 stories with expensive apartments in the sky. Property values for those of us with nice low rise condos will tank as the neighbourhoods will no longer be desirable.
Everyone around me thinks they are set with the nice yearly increases in their properties values they are all getting. No one is looking at what is really going on, they are going to be surprised when all their dreams of a great retirement crumble.
Once again thanks for all your hard work on these issues no one will ever tell you, you didn’t warn them.
To have any hope of answering I first need to know what Neighbourhood do you live in? The more specific the better, I.e., between arbutus and Broadway, 6th to 8th. You can balance as between being specific and being private
I live in Fairview Slopes a 5 min walk from the VGH Station. Right now I have a view depending on the South False Creek development I may or may not keep it all.
Based on your approximate location, redevelopment will start (shovels in ground) 2-3 years from now if the Broadway Plan is passed in May, based on how long it takes to get permits, etc. If there is a big change to Council in October the BP will be rescinded in favour of a Neighbourhood plan that actually has input from the neighbours. Because the BP is all about spot rezoning, the locations of towers will appear random for a long time as property is assembled into developable chunks. Some low-rise condos will sell out en masse, others will remain in the shadows.
A complete collapse of real estate is also a real possibility-we bought our first Vancouver home a few months before the 1980 collapse. In the west, economic recovery from that took 5 years and the success of Expo 86.
So we may have a collapse, we may have a new municipal government in October. Watch the latter (and help make the change if you can). Without substantial change to government the FS you have known and loved may be gone before your retirement date. Sorry I can’t be more positive-Council’s completely ignoring all the speakers against UBCx and the Jericho Lands alignment yesterday has set me back.
This is about what I expected, based on the current plans the city wants my much loved afternoon and evening sun will be gone, I might still have some city views.
I asked our property manager his thoughts and he says we will likely be approached by a developer to buy the property. The elevation and location would guarantee 8-10 floors of north facing views based on the plans now being purposed.
The offer would probably be 2 to 3 times the assessed value.
If that happens I will advise my neighbours to sell, I doubt it will be hard to do with a large offer but they will wonder how they lost there much beloved homes. We will all move as far as we can to avoid the never ending desire to expand downtown.
I am hoping an offer will come in before everyone finally see's the massive amount of overstock coming and decides to sell triggering the crash, then they will all want to move increasing the housing cost in the new desirable neighbourhoods.
I will vote and keep writing council and support all the people trying to prevent what seems inevitable.
It is such a beautiful city with so much promise to be welcoming and more populated greed will destroy it.
Thanks again for all your work and thoughtful post they are a good balance of hopefulness and reality.
Similar to Margeax, I am wondering when development will start taking over
Point Grey if an election or financial crash do not intervene. I am already going to lose part of my view to the MIRRHP tower at Alma and Broadway. Even if TEAM wins the election, will that have any effect on the Jericho lands given that that is a First Nations development?
The Jericho Lands are within the city of Vancouver so are governed by its zoning and other bylaws. The ownership of JL is a bit murky-the relationship between Canada Lands Corp and MST seems rather secret, so it may be the feds could overrule the city but that’s kind of a “nuclear option,” especially as JL is in Joyce Murray’s riding. Interesting how quiet she’s been so far
Thanks, Brian. And when can we expect Broadway west of Arbutus to become towers?
Let’s dust off the key elements…
Speculation problem? Tax it at $332/sf—more revenues for City Hall!
Like the 'empty homes tax' these moves by government are nothing more than a money grab. The punitive taxes will not deter off-shore capital from landing on these choice sites. They will be written off as 'the price of doing business' by folks overseas used to paying off government bribes.
So, any government action resulting in more government revenues has to be exposed for what it is—lying to the citizens.
The 'mix' of tenures is also laughable:
4% BELOW MARKET RENTAL
6% MARKET RENTAL
90% MARKET FOR SALE
We really are 'in through the looking glass' here. Once Upon A Time, the following mix was considered as appropriate in Vancouver (by TEAM 1.0 in False Creek South):
33% NON-Market
33% TARGETED TO MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
33% Market
Look at those numbers again and wonder out loud who is driving the train, and where that train is headed. 96% of Vancouverites are being shut out of the housing market by their very own government!
It is all coming to a head at the next election.
The last election saw only two Councillors re-elected. The Mayor and 8 other Councillors shown the door. THAT made it a change election.
Or did it?
Is there ANY difference between this Council and the one they replaced in almost 1 for 1 manner? No. Forecasts are that housing prices will grow from 7-times over affordability to 8-times over affordability by election time.
So, we face another 'change election'. Citizens must turn out and vote the bums out again.
With a new majority on Council, these 2050 plans can be exposed for what they really are...
Selling our city by the pound to the highest bidder.
Let's throw the bums out, and take a majority on Council! Then, let's give Vancouver back to the people again.
I was shocked by the %'s I found when I started to dive deeper. "They can't possibly mean this!", except apparently, they do. Thanks for reading
Thanks for sharing. I believe that what will be done will be whatever will make the most money in property taxes although, the increase in revenue will be eroded by massive costs to updates in infrastructure. I don’t live in Vancouver anymore but I did for most of my life and am a 3rd generation Kits kid! I’d like to know if anything further can be done to stop this before the election. It sickens me!
Let's get you back!
You can donate to TEAM, the party with the only hope of turning the city around. And you can urge yourself Vancouver friends to donate and join TEAM. Thanks for reading
Thank you Brian, an excellent presentation
Thanks. It took 2 generations of planning to create modern Vancouver-it’s only requiring one to destroy it.
Hi Brian thanks for speaking at this meeting as usual well thought out and filled with facts that should get any councillors attention. The fee they want to impose will simply crush any hope of smaller scale buildings, developers building towers can absorb that cost mid rise construction can not.
I have a question for you that is off topic but as someone who is actually taken time to review the cities plans and impacts and voice an opinion whenever possible ( the city doesn’t allow for many possibilities) I like to know your opinion.
When will all these projects start and when will they be completed? I know south false creek can not fully proceed until the land lease is up in 15 years but I have no idea about the other projects.
The reason I am asking is I might want to sell before my retirement in 15 or 20 years. At that point people will realize the city basically built the projects for anyone below 15 stories with expensive apartments in the sky. Property values for those of us with nice low rise condos will tank as the neighbourhoods will no longer be desirable.
Everyone around me thinks they are set with the nice yearly increases in their properties values they are all getting. No one is looking at what is really going on, they are going to be surprised when all their dreams of a great retirement crumble.
Once again thanks for all your hard work on these issues no one will ever tell you, you didn’t warn them.
To have any hope of answering I first need to know what Neighbourhood do you live in? The more specific the better, I.e., between arbutus and Broadway, 6th to 8th. You can balance as between being specific and being private
I live in Fairview Slopes a 5 min walk from the VGH Station. Right now I have a view depending on the South False Creek development I may or may not keep it all.
Based on your approximate location, redevelopment will start (shovels in ground) 2-3 years from now if the Broadway Plan is passed in May, based on how long it takes to get permits, etc. If there is a big change to Council in October the BP will be rescinded in favour of a Neighbourhood plan that actually has input from the neighbours. Because the BP is all about spot rezoning, the locations of towers will appear random for a long time as property is assembled into developable chunks. Some low-rise condos will sell out en masse, others will remain in the shadows.
A complete collapse of real estate is also a real possibility-we bought our first Vancouver home a few months before the 1980 collapse. In the west, economic recovery from that took 5 years and the success of Expo 86.
So we may have a collapse, we may have a new municipal government in October. Watch the latter (and help make the change if you can). Without substantial change to government the FS you have known and loved may be gone before your retirement date. Sorry I can’t be more positive-Council’s completely ignoring all the speakers against UBCx and the Jericho Lands alignment yesterday has set me back.
Take care
This is about what I expected, based on the current plans the city wants my much loved afternoon and evening sun will be gone, I might still have some city views.
I asked our property manager his thoughts and he says we will likely be approached by a developer to buy the property. The elevation and location would guarantee 8-10 floors of north facing views based on the plans now being purposed.
The offer would probably be 2 to 3 times the assessed value.
If that happens I will advise my neighbours to sell, I doubt it will be hard to do with a large offer but they will wonder how they lost there much beloved homes. We will all move as far as we can to avoid the never ending desire to expand downtown.
I am hoping an offer will come in before everyone finally see's the massive amount of overstock coming and decides to sell triggering the crash, then they will all want to move increasing the housing cost in the new desirable neighbourhoods.
I will vote and keep writing council and support all the people trying to prevent what seems inevitable.
It is such a beautiful city with so much promise to be welcoming and more populated greed will destroy it.
Thanks again for all your work and thoughtful post they are a good balance of hopefulness and reality.