False Diagrams? Not so much!
City Conversation #124: We circle back to the criticisms of our Broadway Plan modelling, starting with the Kitsilano neighbourhood
It was around May of 2022 when computer modeller Stephen Bohus and I first published our three dimensional model of what the Broadway Plan might look like:
Then-Mayor Kennedy Stewart, in a CBC interview on May 15th, 2022, described our work as “false diagrams.” Not long thereafter a prominent Vancouver architect filed a formal complaint against my writing about the Broadway Plan—it was dismissed some 18 months later, but had the effect of muting some of my writing during a critical period leading up to the municipal election. All water under the bridge.
Here we are some 18 months after the Broadway Plan was approved over myriad citizen objections. Stephen has continued the hard work of tracking every rezoning application in the Broadway Plan neighbourhoods, from initial developer exploration through engagement with city staff, to the reduced “public process,” now to be further curtailed by recent provincial legislation. He kindly shared his spreadsheet with me this morning. Out of curiosity I decided to look at what’s happened already in relation to the 30-year, 30,000 home Broadway Plan (BP).
Overall, the BP covers 500 city blocks of the Kitsilano, Mount Pleasant and Fairview neighbourhoods. We predicted there could be 600+ towers spread over these 500 blocks. 18 months into a 30-year plan there are more than 60 proposals totalling more than 7,500 housing units, or one quarter of city staff’s projected 30,000 new homes—so far, 10 proposals are in Kitsilano, 20 are in Fairview and 30 are in Mount Pleasant. So 18 months into a 30-year program we are already 10% there on high-rise proposals and 25% there on homes to be added. Whether this is a gold rush or simple land banking remains to be seen.
I was particularly interested in the accuracy of our model projections, since they attracted such vitriol at the time. Being fundamentally lazy and wanting to get the information out promptly, I looked first at Kitsilano’s 10 proposals:
The 10 current Broadway Plan Proposals in the Kitsilano neighbourhood
These 10 proposals have a total height of 187 storeys, an average of 18.7 floors per high-rise. Our “BP Model,” the one the Mayor called false diagrams, showed 188 floors. We conclude that the development community has read the BP as carefully as we did and is proposing just what we modelled. The 1561 new homes proposed on these 10 sites do not include at least 2 mature rental buildings to be demolished and existing renters who will be evicted—city staff do not make that data readily available but we are working on it—so the net impact on Kitsilano’s schools, community centres and parks may be somewhat less than the 3,400 new residents from these 10 projects (based on the accepted average of 2.2 residents per housing unit). Of course we are only 18 months into a 30-year project.
Stay tuned.
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Brian Palmquist is a Vancouver-based architect, building envelope and building code consultant (CP) and LEED Accredited Professional (the first green building system). He is semi-retired, still teaching, writing and consulting a bit, but not beholden to any client or city hall. These conversations mix real discussion with research and observations based on a 45+ year career including the planning, design and construction of almost every type and scale of project. He is the co-author of a 1998 publication for CMHC called “Residential Guide to Earthquake Resistance,” author of the Amazon best seller and AIBC Construction Administration course text, “An Architect’s Guide to Construction.” and hoping to start in 2024 a book about how we can accommodate a growing population in the cities we love.
We appreciate someone following what is going on at Vancouver City Hall. If the Vancouver City Council had as much background as Brain Palmquist in architecture and construction we wouldn't have as much rubber stamping of projects from those who are not TECHNICALLY qualified to assess the construction of a building or supporting infrastructure. Therefore Rezoning Approvals by members of the City Council and the Mayor is strictly blind faith.
E-mail from Kent MacDougall, Rezoning Planner, Aug 9, 2021. Quote: The Urban Design Panel (UDP) does not approve or refuse projects or make policy decisions. The Urban Design Panel has been muted from City planning.
Here is the elephant in the room and its called transportation.
Despite popular opinion that subways are the magical answer to transit needs, they are not and far from it.
In the real world (the world outside the metro Vancouver bubble), subways are only built when ridership on a transit route exceeds about 15,000 persons per hour per direction on a transit route. In Europe, this number is over 20,000 pphpd for two reasons: 1) The modern tram can accommodate traffic flows in excess of 20,000 pphpd and the experience that subways built on lightly used transit routes tend to suck money away from other non subway transit routes.
It is also worthwhile noting, that Thales New Release regarding their winning of the $1.47 billion re-signalling program for the Expo and millennium Lines stated the following:
"When the programme is fully implemented, the Expo Line will be able to accommodate 17,500 passengers per hour per direction, and the Millennium Line will be able to handle 7500 passengers per hour per direction, a 32% and 96% increase respectively."
So, the Broadway subway will have a maximum capacity of one half the capacity deemed necessary for building a subway!
For further insult, if one takes the subway to go to downtown Vancouver, one will have to transfer either onto the capacity constipated Canada Line (it can only operate 2 car trains) or travel further to the Expo Line interchange and face a rather long and unpleasant transfer.
Part of the subway plan is to put bus routes like the Fraser St., Kingsway, and Arbutus terminating at subway stations. This means for many, where there was originally a direct service to downtown Vancouver, one will have to make one or two uncomfortable transfers.
Taking the car will be both much faster and much easier.
For those who think the subway will be expanded to UBC, well think again, ain't going to happen, with one exception and that is the abandonment of the Expo Line extension to Langley (cost adjusted for inflation $4.5 billion and TransLink claims that ridership on that part of the line will be less than the current 99-B express bus) and if allowed, funding will be transferred to the UBC subway. it is interest that $4.5 billion will pay for the Broadway extension to Alma, with aerial viaduct to UBC!
Still, the same issues with the Broadway subway will persist, with ridership being mainly $1 a day U-Pass holding students, which means massive subsidies to keep the subway in operation.
It even gets better. The trains used on the Millennium Line are proprietary and there is only one supplier Alstom and now only one customer, TransLink and when the last paid for train leaves the factory back east, production will cease because no one wants the damn thing.
This now means huge maintenance costs, of both the trains and subways will canalize the rest of the transit system, yet almost useless in attracting potential ridership along the massively densified Broadway.
No wonder TransLink is on the stump pleading for more money.
Within 20 years Broadway will be the scene of daily gridlock and congestion, with streets full of electric cars trying to go where transit doesn't.
This is the future folks.