Feint by Numbers: 220,350 and Counting
City Conversation #110: What a Homes for Whom refresher tells us.
Excerpt from my Homes for Whom (HfW) database
It’s been a while since I looked at my HfW database. On this rainy day I decided to refresh and update…harder than it sounds. But I was inspired by a well known national journalist telling me this afternoon what an accomplished population statistics academic told them earlier today about some information they were seeking: “Brian is the person to ask!”
After visiting 450+ Shape Your City web page and updating at least once a week, including this afternoon, I have the summary above—a total of 220,350 proposed new homes in the city of Vancouver to the year 2050. For “fun,” I’ve included the projected school age student impact of each of these numbers[1] (kindergarten, primary and secondary). So we have:
• 66,488 homes are in play in 419 distinct spot rezoning projects either approved or in the “pipeline” to be approved—applications made, Shape Your City[2] web pages mounted, dates for online commentary established, etc. A spot rezoning is where the existing zoning says one thing, but an applicant comes to city hall, saying “How about this instead?” If the spot rezoning is successful, the applicant pays city hall a negotiated Community Amenity Contribution (CAC), in the millions for larger projects, which City Hall can spend however it wishes. Those spot rezonings—just the ones in play as of today— will give us 7,919 additional school students.
• 50,000 additional homes are proposed in just three mega projects: 30,000 in the Broadway Plan; 10,000 in the Jericho Lands; and 10,000 in the city’s Missing Middle initiative. Those are their official, conservative numbers. Add 5,880 additional students.
• Another 57,000 homes are hidden in the mega projects—these are the homes that appear when the words in the mega projects are actually modelled[3] according to what the projects say they want in height and density. The big one is the Broadway Plan, whose massing and guidelines actually contemplate 49,000 more homes than the official number—a cool 163% more than the official numbers. The other 8,000 additional homes arise when you compare the proposed massing of the Jericho Lands[4] to the proposed 10,000 homes—I found an additional 8,000 homes without breaking a sweat. Add 6,703 students.
• The last big number, 47,110 homes, comes from a bunch of projects that have been announced (often by city staff) but have not proceeded to formal applications as yet, or are proceeding piecemeal. They include:
⁃ Duplexing, which is generating about 150 new homes per year, so 4,500 over the next 30 years;
⁃ East Fraser lands, 8,800 homes to finish the buildout—very hard to quantify as it seems to be a moving target;
⁃ 12,000 laneway homes over the next 30 years;
⁃ 3,673 additional homes at Langara and Little Mountain—don’t hold your breath on Little Mountain;
⁃ 3,400 additional homes in Northeast False Creek, not including city lands freed up for development when the viaducts come down;
⁃ 6,000 homes in Senakw’;
⁃ 1,700 homes in Skeena Terrace;
⁃ 4,700 homes as part of the Streamlining Rental initiative.
⁃ For a total of 5,540 new students associated with all of the above.
Remember that we’ve not included redevelopment under existing zoning, like when the mom and pop shops are replaced with commercial below and residential above, nor the effects of the Vancouver Plan and any and every new spot rezoning outside of the Broadway Plan. So my numbers are very conservative.
Back to those numbers:
• In total from above, an additional 220,350 homes and counting, ironically what the previous mayor predicted[5]…means
• At the long-term average of 2.1 persons per home, that’s 462,000+ new Vancouver residents by 2050. We currently have just under 700,000 residents, so that’s a 66% increase in neighbours over the next 30 years, or about 2% per year compounded—twice the average rate over Vancouver’s last 30 years—also twice Toronto’s growth rate[6]. Perhaps we should have a think about what that means in a municipality constrained by water on three sides.
• 26,042 added school age children in an environment where the Vancouver School Board (VSB) has a hidden plan to dispose of 40 school board properties[7]. The number is almost exactly twice the number of excess school spaces the VSB claims will exist by 2032—so if every projected empty seat is filled by a student’s backside, we will still be short 13,000+ spaces—a lot of elementary and secondary schools.
• And all the other usual omissions: no more parks; no more community centres; no more fire halls; no more libraries.
My kids are grown and have fled unaffordable Vancouver. My wife and I are old enough that we will reach our best before dates before most of the numbers above become too real. I feel privileged to know many folks who have practical ideas about how to invite our share of new neighbours without fouling the nest. I hope to use City Conversations to present some of those ideas in the hope that it is not too late for the Vancouver we love.
Today’s question: What is one practical idea you have for welcoming new neighbours without destroying the Vancouver we love?
I read and respond to all comments, also capturing them to relevant neighbourhood files for more detailed future conversations. Where readers indicate an interest in one or more neighbourhoods, I send HfW updates for each new or amended project in their selected ‘hoods.
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Brian Palmquist is a Vancouver-based architect, building envelope and building code consultant and LEED Accredited Professional (the first green building system). He is semi-retired for the moment, still teaching, writing and consulting a bit, but not beholden to any client or city hall. These conversations mix real discussion with research and observations based on a 45+ year career including the planning, design and construction of almost every type and scale of project. He is the author of the Amazon best seller “An Architect’s Guide to Construction.” and working on a book about how we can accommodate a growing population in the Vancouver we love.

[1] https://brianpalmquist.substack.com/p/selling-off-school-lands-while-welcoming
[2] https://www.shapeyourcity.ca/rezoning
[3] https://brianpalmquist.substack.com/p/ins-and-outs-of-the-broadway-plan
[4] https://brianpalmquist.substack.com/p/jerichowhere-high-is-called-low-and
[5] https://brianpalmquist.substack.com/p/feint-by-numbers-220000we-got-this
[6] https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20402/toronto/population#:~:text=The%20metro%20area%20population%20of,a%200.94%25%20increase%20from%202019.
[7] https://brianpalmquist.substack.com/p/requiem-for-the-children
I have lived through a serious population decrease in this City (92-95) when 45000 a year left the province for work in Ontario and Alberta. No one can tell me that any particular scenario is inevitable, no matter how the extrapolations make it look. Nothing was being built. I managed buildings with 30% vacancies. You had to offer free rent and other perks. "It's the economy stupid" (not you Brian) as one presidential pundit explained. Now massive immigration does not necessarily make an economy, it just feeds what is there like a short term drug, a drug that requires ever more next year. It is adding to capital ledger in order to balance the deficient operating side. I don't have the answer but what is going on here is certainly not it!