And now we watch and wait

CC #156—the morning after the Council by-election

The result was not what I was hoping for. Others have started the inevitable analyses of what happened and what did not. I will focus briefly on what we should watch and wait for in the run-up to the full Council elections in 18 months.

Watch ABC

Many (including me) saw this by-election as a referendum on ABC’s (mis)management of the city about halfway through their four year term. I am pleased that their two candidates came last amongst those from the established political parties. ABC’s arrogance in skipping all candidates meetings and placing election signs on private property without permission are just two examples of their disdain for democracy and Vancouver citizens. The mismanagement of the by-election itself is also at their door, since city management reports to them and they approved a drastic reduction in polling places and staff managing the voting.

My prediction is some hand wringing and commissioning of a full report that will not see the light of day before the next election in October 2026.

Watch TEAM

The party I supported came third and fifth—disappointing by any measure. Some of this can be ascribed to their limited, developer-free finances, but not all. They were not helped by persistent vandalism of their electon signage, which I expect will never be investigated or acted on.

Theo and Colleen campaigned very hard, but their messaging was not heard. We live in a time of upheaval—I believe messages about “the way we were” do not land well with citizens for whom “the way we are” is not working out so well. This is not to say I see solutions with OneCity, COPE and the Greens. They are all nibbling at the edges of bigger issues, without the knowledge or experience to effect meaningful improvements.

Watch OneCity, COPE and the Greens

The other three municipal parties campaigned on standing up for the environment, renters, the homeless and a grab bag of other issues. The next 18 months is a dress rehearsal for the 2026 civic elections—enough time to develop substantive policies rather than slogans—I’ll try to keep you posted on what they come up with.

Watch what happens in the city

over the next 18 months until the next election. It’s not difficult to predict that:

1. The Jericho Lands ODP will be passed by Council over significant neighbourhood opposition—there will never again be a public hearing about any of the individual buildings proposed for the project;

2. The Vancouver Plan will become the city’s Official Community Plan (OCP), which will mean (among other outcomes) the end of most public hearings throughout the city—see Item #1 above;

3. The UBCx plan (the extension of SkyTrain out to UBC) will receive provincial and city blessing, regardless of the absence of studies supporting its need, leading to a land rush west of Vine Street—West Point Grey will be left out of the mix, as the Jericho Lands are granted a station, but not the established West 10th commercial area;

4. Most of the remaining renters in Kitsilano west to Blanca will find themselves under the same Broadway Plan demoviction threat as East Kits, South Granville and Fairview;

5. The City will continue to say they are supporting evicted tenants—the first wave of evictions will happen, and evicted renters may or may not have any real supports—COPE and OneCity will wring their hands but otherwise do nothing;

6. The “Villages” component of the Vancouver Plan will be included with the Vancouver OCP—it ignores existing neighbourhood commercial areas, instead opening up formerly residential areas of the city to speculative high density commercial and residential development, guaranteeing the continuing atrophy of established commericial areas such as Grandview-Woodlands, West Point Grey and Dunbar;

7. The current 140+ rezoning proposals in the Broadway Plan will balloon to many more ahead of the 2026 election, as developers seek to lock in their upzonings ahead of any Council change;

8. Each and every residential rezoning proposal will be approved (as for the past seven years)—OneCity, COPE and the Greens will be in favour of each and every one, albeit with occasional but meaningless amendments;

9. The first few high-rise, high density developments will be completed but will lease up very slowly as prospective tenants discover sky high “affordable” rents for tiny, unlivable apartments;

10. All parties, including the Greens, will support any and all redevelopments despite overwhelming evidence that they are disastrous for the environment both during construction and for their lifetimes;

11. There will still be no new schools, parks or community centres—announcements, perhaps, but no shovels in the ground;

12. The first wave of renters will be demovicted as affordable housing in the Broadway Plan area is demolished in favour of unaffordable high-rise housing;

13. The expensive foreign consultants retained by the city to restudy False Creek South (after the first $1 million plan was set aside after massive public opposition) will publish a report that will be the death knell of the successful experiment in integrated communities of affordable rental, co-operatives and strata homes;

14. Meanwhile the Northeast sector of False Creek North will proceed to block view cones with massive development;

15. A variety of individual high-rise, unaffordable housing developments elsewhere in the city will obliterate what remains of citizen views of the mountains and water;

16. ALL of this will be supported by ABC, OneCity, COPE and the Greens, consistent with their previous support of their precursor initiatives and their fervent belief that the private sector can build us out of our affordability issues;

This is my housing and urban design scorecard for the next 18 months—I’ve numbered these to make it easier for me to keep readers apprised in real time when I’m wrong and when I’m right—I hope I am often in error. Note I’ve not included the other challenges facing the city—homelessness, crime, addiction, decaying infrastructure, etc.—because I’m just an architect and know the limits of my knowledge and experience.

Take care and stay strong.

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This post is way more than the three minutes citizens are allowed when they speak to the current City Council, in their efforts to suppress democracy. If you appreciated it, share to your social media and consider becoming a free subscriber to City Conversations at

Brian Palmquist writes on the traditional, ancestral and unceded lands of the Musqueam people. He is a Vancouver-based architect, building envelope and building code consultant and LEED Accredited Professional (the first green building system). He is a member of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver. He is semi-retired, still teaching, writing and consulting a bit, but not beholden to any client or city hall. These conversations mix real discussion with research and observations based on a 50-year career including the planning, design and construction of almost every type and scale of project. He is the author of the Amazon best seller and AIBC Construction Administration course text, “An Architect’s Guide to Construction.” A glutton for punishment, he recently started writing a book about how we can Embrace, Enhance and Evolve the places where we love to live.